Week Eleven Stock Up/ Down (Playoff Prep)

You might be a fool if you don't see what my trade value is.

In most standard formats the playoffs begin in a couple weeks from now so you, as a fantasy football owner, should have a firm grasp on whether you are making the playoffs or not.

If you are on the outside looking in right now here are your options:

• You need points and who else is going to give you mondo points but a QB? You're already on the cusp of playing for nothing in a few short weeks so shake up your roster by adding a guy like Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, or Troy Smith. What have you got to lose by shedding a fourth RB, or WR? Bye weeks are over, and you plan on using your best position players no matter the matchup? Right? 
• Make a trade! In nearly every format on nearly every website the trade deadline has not yet come giving you the option to make a trade. Perhaps due to under achieving or injury you are lacking in a position and haven't had luck pulling a guy off the waiver wire to fill in for Dallas Clark, Ryan Grant, Tony Romo, etc... Making a trade this late can be done one of two ways...
• Find a guy who is definitely in the playoffs, and might be willing to let go of a two medium pieces (Jay Cutler, Ronnie Brown) for your blue ticket stud (Andre Johnson) to sure up his roster. 
• Find someone who is not going to make the playoffs, regardless of what transpires these last couple of weeks, and is still sending a roster every week. More then likely they will have no problem selling low on player. Especially in a keeper league if you offer them a future stud for next year so you can sure up this years roster. 
• Monitor the waiver wire. Not as in looking to pickup the next hot backup who is making a start this Sunday because, face it, this late in the season all the "hot pickups" are already claimed, and are you really going to let the future of your post season lay in the hands of an undrafted rookie from Hofstra? (P.S. due to this factor Pick Ups will relegated to twitter because the crop is nearly harvested and not worth devoting a weekly column to.)You will not make such a crazy move, yet someone else may make the move and leave a proven yet underperforming guy on the wire. A vet who may just make a difference for you in the coming weeks. Also, some guys unload rosters when they realize they are done. Proof? In a 10 team league that starts 3 QB, RB, WR, TE, D, K I nabbed Hakeem Nicks, Thomas Jones, Steelers D, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Kyle Orton. 

If you are in here are some ways to ensure post season victory...

• You have the record you have because of your kick-butt roster. Thus, unless you are lacking in a certain roster spot don't change it. Due to a bad matchup or off week one of your guys may put up a single digit and scare you into dropping him. Don't over react. He got you this far so keep him. You gotta dance with the one that brought ya. 
• Make a trade if needed. So let's say you do need help at TE, and the only ones left on the wire are no better then what you have, say Brent Celek. Scan records and find a guy who is on the fence and needs help in a position you are stacked in yet has that TE you need. Due to their hunger they may be willing to sell low on their TE and buy high on a RB like Hightower, Fred Jackson, or Green-Ellis. You're not looking to trade away a guy like McFadden or Foster, but your third option at running back may be better then their first. 

Week Eight Stock Up/ Down

Paging Randy Moss. Randy Moss!

Since catching 3 touchdowns in his first 2 games Wes Welker has gone scoreless in his last 4. When you compare last year's NE roster to this year it's almost understandable why his production has fallen off.

• The 2010 draft brought in two high-caliber tight ends to pick up that short yardage/ crossing route throws that Welker was so accustomed to getting come out of the slot. 
• The trade for Deion Branch reunited Tom Brady with one of his favorite targets from years ago. In Branch's first game back he had 9 receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown. That has "looking for him" written all over it. 
• Welker's production came before the running game opened up for new starters and scorers Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Before the emergence of those two Brady needed Welker's presence to score at the goal line. 
• Although his production fell off before the Randy Moss trade; perhaps Welker needs Moss to insure he gets his share of targets. Now the best deep threat they have is a 31 year old Deion Branch.

A guy quietly making leaps and bounds in the receiving and running game is the afore-mentioned Danny Woodhead; coincidentally mistaken for Welker after a week 4 touchdown against the Dolphins by one of the announcers for the Patriots Radio Network. Save for last week's game at SD, even with a 2-4 record SD does play much better defense at home, Woodhead has put up double digit fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. On the flip side Woodhead is filling in nicely for the Sammy Morris role of the Patriots offense being utilized not only as a WR but as a RB as well. If you don't roll the dice on Danny be sure to keep an eye on him to see what his production is vs. that of Wes Welker.