Thursday, November 4, 2010

Week Nine Stock Up/Down

Trouble? Me? Huh?
The biggest question this week isn't why the 0-7 Buffalo Bills claimed Shawn Merriman off the waiver wire; although it does baffle me. Perhaps nothing makes more sense then a winless team going after a top DE to sure up their d-line.

It is, however, what went on in the mind of Brad Childress to release a future hall of fame WR just 4 weeks after the Vikings traded a 3rd round pick to NE for him? The joke of all jokes would have been the Patriots picking him back up so ESPN could run the line, "NE Patriots trade Randy Moss for a 3rd round pick and Randy Moss."

Regardless of insubordination, being a cancer in the locker room, possibly being the cause of Brett getting his chin lacerated, or Brad needing to show that he is the Man in Minnesota; Moss is gone and is now a Tennessee Titan.

Think about that from a reputation standpoint. The Titans were #24 in line for Moss meaning 23 other teams passed on Randy. That alone should be enough for him to pull his head out of his ego, and start shaping up. However, as long as he relies on the fact he is tall and fairly fast he'll expect that big contract during the offseason.

Moving on, what fantasy impact does Moss's departure from Minnesota and arrival in Tennessee mean for the Vikings and Titans receiving cores?

For Minnesota it means stock down on Percy Harvin and stock up on Visanthe Shiancoe. At the beginning of the season, with the injury of Sidney Rice, Harvin was viewed as the Vikings #1 receiving option and got the bulk of attention from opposing defenses. This was seen in the Vikings first game as Harvin was targeted 5 times, yet only caught one ball for 12 yards. Meanwhile Shiancoe was the leading receiver with 4 receptions, 7 targets, for 76 yards and 1 score. This pattern continued next week as Shiancoe had more receptions/ yards then Harvin. However, in week 5 when Moss arrived roles were reversed and Harvin lost the double coverages he normally saw because of the presence of Randy. In his next 3 out of 4 games Harvin would have no fewer then 5 receptions/ 60 yards including a 2 touchdown performance at New York, and over 100 yards this past Sunday at New England. Meanwhile during those same 4 games Shiancoe would average 2 receptions per game and a measly 24 ypg.

With Moss leaving Minnesota we can only assume that things in Minnesota will return to pre-Moss conditions and allow Shiancoe to be Favre's #1 target as Harvin gets double teamed again. So... what does this do to things in Tennessee?

Kenny Britt: undoubtedly the #1 target of both Collins and Young; Britt is the go to guy. His week 10 status and beyond is gloomy due to his hamstring issue. Even when he returns it may take a while for his hamstring to get acclimated to game speed. Right now he is not a factor to worry about.

Nate Washington: while Britt was in the doghouse at the beginning of the season he was the deep threat for the Titans and looked ready to reassume that role after the injury of Britt. If things hold true for the Tennessee offense one WR gets all the attention from the QB and everyone else gets the breadcrumbs. Chris Johnson is such a heavy part of the offense it only leaves so much left for wide receivers. As Moss learns the playbook look for him to get the bulk of targets while Washington fades back into the fantasy black hole.

Bo Scaife: already a non factor in the offense Scaife averages just under 3 rpg, 22 ypg, and only 2 scores on the season. The small amount of looks he received should diminish as he becomes more of a pass blocking tight end in order to give more time to Collins/ Young to find Moss.